Tamara Lorincz‘s dissertation defence.
Abstract
The end of the Cold War with the peace dividend and the establishment of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at the Earth Summit in 1992 created the ideal conditions for international cooperation on the threat of global warming. However, thirty years later, greenhouse gas emissions and military spending have risen to record levels. My dissertation puts military emissions, the national security exemption, and the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) “in the line of fire” and critically examines them in the context of global climate governance.
I use a multimethod, qualitative research design that includes archival and Access to Information (ATI) records, field work, and interviews to investigate the international and national governance of military emissions. Militaries use vast amounts of fossil fuel and public funding for training and combat, but there has been a lack of oversight and transparency of their climate impacts. I use critical theory and critical discourse analysis that are framed by the salient concepts of primacy, security, militarism, and alliances to interpret the extensive material that I collected.
With the archives from the William J. Clinton Presidential Library and the Library of Congress along with substantial supplementary material, I construct a historical narrative to show how and why the United States negotiated an exemption for military emissions at the third Conference of the Parties (COP) in Kyoto, Japan in 1997. The documents reveal that the Clinton-Gore administration pursued a national security provision to exempt military emissions as it contemporaneously planned the expansion of the military alliance that it dominates. My research uncovers the individuals, institutions, and interests that were involved and traces the geopolitical and climate impacts.
This historical analysis is complemented by field work at the COPs in Glasgow in 2021, Sharm el-Sheikh in 2022, and Dubai in 2023 where I investigated how the UNFCCC governs military emissions and how civil society organizations advocate for greater oversight. As well, I assess NATO’s governance of military emissions. Using ATI documents, I examine how Canada manages military emissions and carbon disclosure in defence procurement. In 1993, the Clinton-Gore administration launched the Joint Advanced Strike Technology program, which later evolved into the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, the costliest, most carbon-intensive weapons system in history. Air superiority and allied interoperability have been central to NATO strategy after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, but this has led to carbon lock-in. In the post-Cold War period, allies have used coercive air power to conduct interventions, which have had grave impacts on the targeted countries and the climate. I critique the military’s “green defence” and net-zero plans as governing practices.
The Clinton-Gore administration’s decision to exempt military emissions intersected with and was contingent upon the expansion of the U.S.-led military alliance, which has been consequential for climate governance. The war in Ukraine has focused attention and increased research on the climate damage of the military and the social cost of carbon from conflict, but the roots of the tragic war stem from NATO enlargement in the 1990s. I conclude that a new climate of peace and cooperation, through demilitarization and environmental peacebuilding, is urgently needed for the effective governance of military emissions and to ensure human security and survival as the climate crisis dangerously accelerates.
Supervisor: Dr. Timothy Donais
Committee: Dr. Simon Dalby, Dr. Marie-Claire Cordonier Segger and Dr. Veronica Kitchen
Internal/External: Dr. Robert McLeman
External: Dr. Emily Gilbert, University of Toronto
Chairperson: Dr. Scott Ensign
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